In January 2022, Klaus Schwab published The Great Narrative as his sequel to The Great Reset. Klaus proposes a framework for action based on humanistic values. The framework was developed through 50 conversations with global thought leaders. The Great Narrative is a hybrid genre - part essay and part manifesto. It boldly declares that humankind possesses the agency to shape the future we want.
To do that, we must first recognize that the pandemic created a social and psychological shock centred around ‘fear’. Fear can lead to war. However, if we choose a new framework, we can instead create a new social contract and a better world. This change will be marked by ever increasing complexity and velocity driven by technology.
In order to embrace that framework, we need to tell ourselves a different story (a new narrative). Our global interdependence will require an acceptance of dramatic changes in our economies, societies, institutions, laws, rules and habits. We need to think ‘out of the box’ and adopt an enlarged mental map to see the world differently. Narratives can help uncover big ideas that can go viral and self replicate. Such ideas must go beyond the realm of theory and become calls to action.
‘Narratives shape our perceptions, which in turn forms our realities and end up influencing our choices and decisions. They are how we find meaning in life.’ Challenges to implementing the narrative are ‘anti-science movements’ which are blamed as hindering our ability to move forward in unison. Those adherents live in the world of fake news and conspiracy. Still, a new open-ended narrative - as opposed to a finished story - is proposed as the solution. The resolution and outcome of the narrative depends on you.
The Great Narrative shares 50 interrelated narrative coalescing around a central vision of the future. Narratives are categorised into economic, environmental, geopolitical, social and technological. It will be impossible for me to summarise all 50 narratives here. For that you will need to read the whole book. However, I will highlight extracts in the key categories.
POST-COVID ISSUES AND CHALLENGES - BOOK SUMMARY
Economic Narratives
Economic growth (GDP) is expected to return in 2022, but at a more tepid rate. But the economic narrative needs to change away from growth and towards climate action, sustainability, inclusivity, health and well-being. This will require a new instrument to measure ‘human progress’ factors. (Klaus suggests the ‘One Earth Balance Sheet’ Project). Achieving a new measurement standard is referred to as the ‘Completion of Civilization’.
It is hard to know exactly when public debt will become a problem. The debt narrative must shift from ‘how much debt?’ to ‘what is that debt for’? Historically, the lack of inflation has allowed current debt levels. But when interest rates rise, inflation and debt sustainability will be an instant risk. Lower growth and higher debt will have the following effects:
The end of convergence (the gap between rich and poor will grow)
The resurgence of inflation (which could morph into stagflation)
Re-emergence of productivity (increased digital and automation adoption)
Strong emergence of crypto (and the end of physical cash and the USD as the world reserve currency)
Environmental Narratives
Global environmental agreements to date (Rio, Kyoto, Paris, and Glasgow) are described as weak platitudes. Conversely, climate change is the existential threat facing humanity. We are on the brink of abrupt and violent change, disaster and the point of no return. We are at risk of undermining the life-support system that we depend on. So we must reconnect with the planet to avoid a planetary emergency. We are in the decisive decade (the tipping point).
In addition to already committed actions, we need a 40% reduction in methane emissions. We also need an additional reduction of 100 billion to 1 trillion tonnes of CO2 by the end of the century. The ineffectiveness of commitments to date include:
The lack of a carbon price: The current ‘estimated price’ on carbon is $3 per tonne. The price goal should be $300-$500 per tonne by 2030 and $1000 per tonne by 2050.
Ineffectiveness of low-carbon technologies. A $100-300 trillion dollar capital investment in hydrogen/fusion will be required to reach net zero within 4 decades.
Poor architecture of climate accords. Each country seeks to free-ride off others. No penalties exist against countries who fail to meet their targets.
Therefore a universal carbon tax is needed with consistent ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) standards. Penalties must be implemented for non-compliance. The climate zeitgeist has changed towards more action, but the narrative must continue to progress towards climate justice.
Energy price inflation will occur as energy transition happens. ‘Yellow Vest’ type protests as seen in France are expected to grow as people worry more about the ‘end of the month’, than the ‘end of the world’. ‘Not in my term in office’ needs to be overcome in democracies, along with right wing climate deniers and NIMBYs. But in the name of climate justice, the legacy of western world’s historical climate footprint must be considered when equitably distributing energy to developing nations.
Geo-Political Narratives
Power and influence will be redistributed chaotically with less stability in the coming decades. The rivalry between China and the US will be the largest source of instability. It will manifest itself in sea lane security and international terrorism. There will be a ‘global order deficit’. While war between the US and China may not be planned by either side, it is easy to see a sequence of events unfolding which leads to an unnecessary war. The US is engaged in strategic contraction which is exacerbated by its increased internal polarisation and cronyism. In contrast the Chinese Community Party is viewed as stable and confident. But it does have risks with its ageing population and high debt levels. Should debt destabilise China, it may choose to lash out as a distraction, with Taiwan being the most likely target.
Social Narratives
Inequality is the most damaging social challenge. Inequality demands a redefinition of our social contract. COVID-19 responses exacerbated inequality by fuelling asset prices and forcing low-paid workers to continue working as ‘essential’ while others sat back. For those born poor, it is harder than ever to climb the social ladder. Inequality now threatens institutional structures. The top 0.1% now own 11% of global wealth.
Privacy no longer exists as technology can track our every gesture. Our personal and professional data is fully monitored and transparently visible to many. This displays inequality further and provides more awareness of the misbehaving of the ruling class. The rule of law is being undermined and will be ultimately destroyed. Protests and social unrest will increase.
Today's governments are incapable of offering representative and effective governance. Dis-illusion will increase with the ‘social contract’. Cradle to grave changes will be demanded. A new welfare based contract will be needed which provides universal assistance, insurance, and services. Workers will need mandatory benefits and minimum wages. The younger generation will demand more radical action to address intergenerational and LGBTQ+ inequality. The young are mobilised for strong action.
Technological Narratives
The metaverse will have a profound impact on our future. The distinction between being online and offline will increasingly blur (augmented reality). Attitudes towards Artificial Intelligence (AI) vary with Americans citing fear because of sci-fi movies like Terminator, while Japanese have warmth towards new technology with manga experiences like AstroBoy.
Speed of change also heightens fear. Isaac Asimov said ‘Science gathers knowledge faster than science gathers wisdom’. Regulating technology is difficult. Developments are continuing at pace in the areas of gene-synthetic revolution, cyber warfare, quantum computing and neurotechnology. The largest technological threats are listed as:
Cybercrime: Strategic digital crime will cost $10.5 trillion annually by 2025.
AI warfare: Killer drones with machine learning using real time imagery can be as small as a tin of shoe polish with 3 grams of explosives. They can operate in swarms and become as ubiquitous as guns.
Synthetic Biology: We are at the dawn of a genetics revolution. mRNA vaccines ‘transform our bodies into personalised manufacturing plants’. These will move beyond vaccine applications to fighting other diseases, offering health enhancements and generating ‘energy from algae’. Such treatments could also be used in discriminatory ways such as eugenics on embryos. Today we have palaeolithic emotions, medieval institutions and god-like technologies’. E.O. Wilson Gene editing technology is easy to use and unregulated. Our DNA will be readable, writable, usable and hackable much sooner than we realise.
WEF SOLUTIONS - BOOK SUMMARY
Collaboration and Cooperation
Crises compel action. We will be rewriting many of the rules for the new world as we go. Current global governance is faltering because of our inability to work together. So a paradigm shift to view our challenges as global public goods will necessitate that our governed futures and destinies are inextricably linked.
Evolution will allow us to move past western individualism and towards social learning and cooperation. This neuro-scientific goal will require teaching empathy for others at a global level. Professor Richard Davidson from the University of Wisconsin says ‘Change your brain, Change the world’.
We need to identify a minimum cooperative framework - specifically for China and the US to address climate issues. The framework will require multi-scaled, poly-centric global governance. It will start with ‘inclusive localism’ and build upwards based on ‘Our Common Agenda’.
Imagination and Innovation
Imagination is infinite and a form of super-power. We need to break out of cognitive lockdown and reimagine building a cohesive whole. Carlota Perez offers an ‘imagination narrative’ with a new supranational institution enabled by ICT. This institution would regulate finance at a global level while redesigning the welfare state and tax system. This includes policies that are green and fair. In the implementation phase ‘creative destruction’ will eliminate many skills and jobs. But the next phase will tilt the playing field and re-legitimize capitalism by ensuring benefits go to a larger share of people.
The pandemic has created the conditions for Carlota’s narrative. The ‘Network for Greening the Financial System’ is a group of 91 central banks with the aim to revolutionise the way climate risks are considered by financial institutions. This may include creating carbon quantitative easing policies (or a carbon coin) to fund necessary climate initiatives as discussed in Kim Stanley Ronbinson’s book, The Ministry of the Future. The imperative is to move towards action because, “Vision or imagination without implementation is hallucination”.
The bio-economy is another innovative field. Natural Capital could be incorporated into the way we make value judgments. We can measure and rank entities and individuals on their use of shared natural assets such as agriculture, aquaculture, land, etc. Synthetic biology is another area which could develop a new generation of harmlessly degradable plastics, biological carbon neutral cement, alternative food protein sources, and soil microbes that reduce fertiliser needs and remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
Geo-engineering or climate engineering involves direct intervention on the earth’s atmosphere by repairing the climate. This could include refreezing the arctic by covering the region with white clouds or reflecting sunlight away from the earth by injecting aerosols into the stratosphere. However, are there unanticipated consequences to these methods?
Morality and Values
Morality is a set or system of beliefs and principles addressing right and wrong as they relate to behaviour and character. Morality is about social and cultural norms while values are about personal convictions and beliefs. Both help us judge what is important in life.
Today's world is prompting us to reconsider the role of morality and values in our lives. We must think of humanity in ecological terms and build institutions that support diversity not eliminate it. The non-west is angry at the West for imposing its values upon them (white saviour mentality). While divergent values between countries may not be bridged, we can focus on shared values such as environmental degradation. Economics are a value system because they are about the choices we collectively make. Companies are human and social institutions.
Public Policies
The science of decarbonizing the economy is described as incontrovertible. In short, sustainability is the only way forward and described as common sense. Populism is bad for sustainability. Sustainability is defined as the ability to meet our own needs without compromising future generations ability to meet theirs. 2 fundamental objectives are required.
Achieve the 2015 UN Sustainability Goals
Abide by the Paris Agreement on Climate Change to limit global temp to less than 2C
The idea that green growth won’t work is a myth and must be debunked. Positive narratives that this will work must be shared and adopted. 80% of the globe's total energy mix is ‘brown energy’. Technology can help green energy evolve more rapidly than previously thought. The European Green New Deal is lauded. To achieve its goal almost every major industry will have to be overhauled. Private companies will be encouraged to invest in the deal with loan guarantees from the European Investment Bank (which itself has pledged to phase out loans to fossil fuel projects). This coincides with the need to immediately raise the European cost of carbon from $10 per tonne to $60 per tonne. Also, agricultural subsidies will need to be phased out. The pandemic has shown that governments have the bandwidth to move radically when needed. Youth activism will also accelerate this change. Individually, we will also need to consume, travel and eat differently in a less carbon intensive manner. Social safety nets will increase in all nations. Shareholder value will become secondary to stakeholder capitalism. Governments will have greater intervention in all industries. Taxation will increase for the most privileged. This will allow more funding for the public sector and fund advances in science and education. Biden’s (currently suspended) Build Back Better Bill is touted as an example of placing ‘families and climate’ at the centre of new legislation. Similarly, Japan's PM Kishida’s new capitalism will introduce income redistribution. These approaches will improve welfare and also stop the rise of populism. Furthermore, the purpose, role and function of the state will evolve to be the ‘entrepreneurial state’ - one that partners with all manner of businesses. Resilience We cannot be individually well in a society that is not collectively well. Social resilience is linked to planetary care. Resilience will be a post-COVID preoccupation and serve as a guiding north star. Economically, when thinking about the supply change, ‘just in case’ systems will replace ‘just in time’ systems. ‘Supply security’ will necessarily result in less profit, longer delivery and less efficiency and greater inventories. A radically new global consensus will be needed to enhance state capacities. GDP will need to be replaced by ambitious collective common goals like avoiding climate change or vanquishing pandemics. This may require a new approach to intellectual property rights. Governments will need to adopt the role of providing ‘social insurance’ to safeguard its people. We may need a Global Resilience Council similar to the UN Security Council. Role of Business It is only reasonable that companies should serve us. The debate is framed as ‘shareholder’ vs ‘stakeholder’. The shareholder has a financial interest, while the stakeholder view sees itself as the trustee of the material universe for future generations. This involves its use of resources, the taxes it pays and the knowledge it uncovers. This view of ‘stakeholder capitalism’ is incorporated in the 2020 Davos Manifesto which shares these 3 ESG principles:
E: Steward to the environment, protect our biosphere, build a regenerative economy.
S: Consider suppliers as partners. Integrate human rights in the whole supply chain.
G: Access and support fair competition with zero tolerance for corruption
Measuring ESG performance will become the gold standard of business adherence to stakeholder value. Compliance will be ensured by both government and social pressure. Business will welcome governments setting social rules and benchmarks. They will report their ESG performance using metrics ijust as they report their financial performance today. Adhering to these metrics will be the entry price to operate. Global Corporate Citizenship describes how businesses need to operate alongside governments and civil societies.
Technology
Technology will be the saviour for the aforementioned problems. In the next 10 years we’re going to reinvent every industry and experience more progress than in the last 100 years’. By 2050 we should have an operating fusion reactor, workable quantum computing and ‘brain-net’ - which is when the human mind is merged with computers.
Technology will drive the convergence of the physical, digital and biological worlds. Some architects are developing additive manufacturing which mixes materials with synthetic biology to pioneer a new symbiosis in our bodies, the products we consume and the buildings we inhabit. They are making and growing objects that are continuously mutable and adaptable. Synthetic biological engineering holds the promise of reprogramming biology to mass produce cells for the benefit of the individual and the planet.
CRISPR is gene editing technology that allows scientists to change the code of life in cells and can turn specific genes on or off. CRISPR could speed up the human evolution process to help us adapt to global challenges like climate change and pandemics. More than $9B was raised in 2020 for research into synthetic biology. e.g Impossible Foods is using synthetic biology to create plant based burgers. Other areas of advanced technology include:
Visualisation, robotics, additive manufacturing, 5G, Internet of Things, decentralised energy delivery, distributed Infrastructure, quantum computing, neuro-morphing, AI, autonomous vehicles, machine learning, trust architecture, distributed ledgers, bio-revolution (confluence of of biology, computing, automation and AI), and next-gen materials [graphene and nano-materials embedded to increase performance in energy, health, manufacturing, pharma, semiconductors and transport industries]
Conclusion
Hope is found in our willingness to change. Klaus acknowledges that on most historical metrics, the world is ‘better’ than it has ever been. But while data does matter, so too does our subjective experience of it. So if people feel inequality, then that must be addressed. So where do the 50 global thinkers find their hope? The sources are summarised as follows:
Our innate human ingenuity and adaptability: We are both the problem and solution.
Technology and the speed of innovation: Science saves lives.
Activism from the young generation: Their energy and commitment for social change.
THE GREAT NARRATIVE - MY ANALYSIS The above summaries of The Great Reset and The Great Narrative are not crazy conspiracy theories. These words are just extracts from World Economic Forum books which were developed from the contribution of geneticists, futurists and global thought leaders. It is foolish to dismiss as ‘nutters’ those who take the WEF at their word and analyse their impacts. As Russell Brand says tongue in cheek, ‘Conspiracy theories have just become spoiler alerts’. We should take the World Economic Forum at their word. The level of blatant social engineering promoted at their conferences is astounding. JP Sears succinctly mocks their aims in his 'Universal Economic Forum' parody. The WEF are writing news headlines in advance for the purpose of controlling the narrative. Klaus Schwab was an unelected speaker the 2022 G20 Bali meeting. He is wielding influence at that level. That is why I joined the World Economic Forum as a member. I want to keep my enemies close and hear directly about tomorrow's news today. Theologically, The Great Narrative promotes a false gospel. In the absence of God, it ramps up fear by positing that climate change and pandemics are our biggest threat to survival; and the solution lies within each of us - if we use ‘science’ to intervene, speed up evolution and become better beings. In contrast, the true gospel of Jesus Christ says that our biggest threat is our sin nature, and the solution is not within us but in the finished work of Jesus Christ. Operationally, I see the WEF manifesto for greater global surveillance as disturbing. Klaus Schwab has boasted that over 50% of the Canada's cabinet ministers are graduates of his Young Global Leaders Program. Such powerful controls placed in the hands of a few godless rulers has the potential for destruction. My critique of Klaus' books falls across 3 categories:
Moral Analysis
Economic Analysis
Social Analysis
Moral Analysis:
One of the 50 global thought contributors to The Great Narrative is the Australian bioethicist Peter Singer. Using moral utilitarianism, Peter says the wrongness of taking a life is a spectrum. Yet for Singer, there is no value distinction between animals and humans. Singer is a vegan activist who advocates for animal liberation and speciesism. Yet he is pragmatic about experimenting on living creatures so long as there is potential for collective utilitarian benefit. So, Singer is a strong advocate for human abortion. Singer's fellow WEF through leader, Yuval Noah Harari, divides humans into 6 species. Harari argues that humans can engineer the evolution of their next species by ‘human gene editing to change the code of life’. Current topics like mRNA vaccines and abortion are setting the stage for engineering who lives and dies. This is eugenics.
Economic Analysis:
Despite lofty ambitions and price tags, the WEF subscribes to Modern Money Theory (MMT). MMT posits that governments can print unlimited money and not go broke. While MMT may crash current financial system, it argues that new digital currencies can replace cash with special channels of money printing for shared capital causes. One such cause is the $100T required for new green infrastructure. MMT is sheer lunacy and will result in increased shortages, famine, poverty and conflict. It’s as if the WEF want you to be poor. While the average Joe may ‘not own anything’, I’ve no doubt the elites of the World Economic Forum will do quite well economically in the new financial world. This is a return to slavery.
Social Analysis:
The stated WEF social aims are to create a fairer society as defined by what youth activists demand. To that end, every individual will be measured and controlled by how well they adhere to new ESG instruments. The devil is in the detail of the ESG metrics definitions.
Environment: ‘Protect our planet’ is code for ‘worship nature via population controls’.
Social: ‘Human Rights’ is code for uplifting ever expanding sexual deviations - LGBTQI+.
Governance: ‘Zero tolerance’ is code for totalitarian response to non-compliance
Elon Musk has joked that the S in ESG stands for Satanic. The heart of this social revolution is a rejection of God ordained institutions such as gender and family roles, and replacing them with a collective social contract. This is godlessness.
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